Virridy · Mulago Foundation

Rainer Arnhold Fellowship 2027

Reconciled application draft for Evan Thomas. Built from Avery's draft responses, checked against Virridy records, and mapped to the fields on Mulago's live Airtable form.

Framing, per Avery: the financing model leads. Virridy is a results-based subsidy for water operations, starting with carbon; the sensors and water quality technology appear only as the verification layer that makes those results payable.

Timing: the form itself lists August 16 as the deadline with rolling review; Claire's outreach email extends Evan to August 22 (password provided for access after the weekend). Sooner is better. Mulago responds by end of October; fellows notified January 2027; retreat in Morocco June 3–9, 2027.
From Avery's draft Edited New for the form Needs Evan

Each answer below carries its source and a live count against the form's stated limit, so nothing goes in over length or unverified. Edits from Avery's version are explained in place.

Form responses

In the order the Airtable form asks them.

Eligibility confirmationsFrom Avery's draft

Both boxes checked: Evan is the most senior decision maker committing 30+ hours per week ("Yes. I'm the founder and CEO."), and the organization's budget well exceeds $50k.

MissionNew for the form
Form limit: 8 words, verb + population + outcome

Use carbon markets to keep safe water flowing.

Alternate Pay for Africa's water services with carbon revenue.
Not in Avery's draft; the form requires it. Both options are exactly eight words.
ProblemFrom Avery's draft
Form asks for one sentence or phrase

Building water points was never the hard part. For close to twenty years, the sector has tried to professionalize water operators in Africa and get tariffs to cover the cost of running systems. It hasn't worked: almost no utility on the continent charges tariffs that cover real operating costs, so systems fail once donor funding runs out.

One-sentence trim, if we hold to the letter of the form Tariffs almost never cover the real cost of operating water systems in Africa, so systems fail as soon as donor funding runs out.
Mulago's own example answers run longer than one sentence, so the full version is the recommendation; the trim is there if we want to be strict.
SolutionFrom Avery's draft
Form allows up to 4 sentences

We use the carbon market as the subsidy that keeps water flowing. Carbon credit revenue pays operators for every liter of water provided, not just for building the system. Because carbon markets demand rigorous verification, our projects also have to prove people aren't drinking contaminated water, something the sector has otherwise never solved.

Scale of deliveryEdited
Form allows up to 3 sentences, with numbers

We've provided safe drinking water to more than seven million people across Rwanda, Kenya, and the DRC. Current programs will reach four million more by 2030 and avoid over a million tons of CO2. We've raised $8.5M in equity and $5M in NSF contracts, hold $30M in offtake agreements through 2033, and have a term sheet for an $11M project-finance debt fund.

Edited per Evan (Aug 17): funding sentence replaced with confirmed figures ($8.5M equity, $5M NSF, $30M offtake through 2033, $11M debt term sheet), resolving the earlier Mortenson question. Partner names were dropped to fit the form's 400-character cap. The 7M served and 4M-by-2030 figures still merit a sanity check.
Where are you working nowEdited

Rwanda, Kenya, DRC, Tanzania, Burundi, Madagascar, Ethiopia, and the United States.

Expanded from the draft's Rwanda/Kenya/DRC to the full active footprint, per Evan.
If you could measure only one thingEdited
Form asks for no more than one sentence, max 140 characters

Cost per averted DALY: sustained, E. coli-free water supply converted to DALYs averted through RCT-backed modeling.

Reframed per Evan from people-years of water to the RenPhil-style chain: E. coli-free sustained supply, converted through RCT-backed modeling into averted DALYs, priced for cost-effectiveness.
Evidence of impactEdited
Form allows up to 3 sentences

In a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Rwanda, our safe water program cut under-five diarrhea by 29% (Kirby et al., PLoS Med 2019). We model that effect through to DALYs averted, and GiveWell ran its own cost-effectiveness analysis and funded the program's expansion. Because carbon revenue covers the program's full operating cost, those averted DALYs come at close to zero net donor cost.

Reworked per Evan: leads with the RCT (the 29% figure matches Kirby et al. 2019, PLoS Med, PR 0.71, CI 0.59 to 0.87, as cited in Virridy's own proposals), runs the chain through to averted DALYs, and closes on the carbon-pays framing (carbon revenue covers 106% of the flagship program's full cost per the internal CEA). The sensor uptime study was removed per Evan. Still to confirm: the GiveWell characterization.
Closest comparison, and the differenceFrom Avery's draft
Form allows up to 4 sentences

Cultivo is the closest parallel: they proved individual grassland restoration projects worked, then used that track record to get their methodology insured by Munich Re, turning a one-off model into a bankable asset class other capital could enter. We're following the same path with water: proving individual carbon-financed operator projects work, with the aim of aggregating them into a diversified portfolio that de-risks the category for investors and connects it to buyers, the way Cultivo did for land.

Avery asked whether "proving projects now, aggregating later" is the accurate stage to claim. Recommendation: yes, keep it; it is honest about stage and reads as a plan rather than a boast.
Video introNeeds Evan

Two minutes or less, Evan speaking directly to camera, shared link pasted into the form. Suggested beats:

  • 0:00Who I am: engineer and founder, twenty years working on water in Africa.
  • 0:20The problem: infrastructure gets built, subsidies end, systems quietly fail.
  • 0:50The idea: carbon revenue as the subsidy that pays operators for every liter delivered and verified safe. Mention the technology once, as the thing that makes results payable, not as the product.
  • 1:30Traction and ambition: seven million people so far; compliance carbon markets can make this a real, structural subsidy for water.
Basics and organizational facts
NameEvan Thomas
Work emailevan.thomas@virridy.com
OrganizationVirridy
Websitehttps://virridy.com
Personal LinkedInAdded by Evan on the form
FounderYes
SectorsWASH + Health
Legal structureFor-profit; confirm whether to also check Nonprofit for an affiliated entityNeeds Evan
Co-foundersLeft blank (none listed)
Full-time employees56
Year registered2012
Budget in 2026 (USD)$6,500,000

Call preparation, not on the form

Mulago dropped "Why exponential?" from this year's form, but as Avery notes it will come up almost immediately on early calls. Internalize rather than paste.

Why exponentialFrom Avery's draft

Our dream is to prove that you can pay for water operations with a results-based subsidy, starting with carbon. To do this, we need to prove individual projects are profitable, and that a portfolio of them can be too. For that dream to come true, carbon programs need to graduate from nice-to-have offsets to global compliance mechanisms. One of our programs in Rwanda just got approved to sell credits into the compliance market, meaning airlines can buy them, not just companies buying voluntarily. That market alone needs tens of millions more credits in the next couple years, and it's forecasted to outnumber voluntary credits within a few years. We're building for that future, where a results-based subsidy for water isn't a nice idea a few donors fund, but a real market with real, structural demand behind it.

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